Every Game Ever Monte Carlo Odds!

(EDIT: Shit, when calculating the odds in the previous version of this post I got a sign wrong. Apologies to anyone who bet the house on Australia.)

These probabilities come 100,000 simulations of a model based on every international game ever played, which really just means that they start from the World Football Elo Ratings (using data from Advanced Satellite Consulting). Have to emphasise that these are based on past results only, and don't explicitly take into account factors like injuries, how good a team looks, and Ronaldo's weight.

Team Prob (TradeSports prob)
Brazil 24.3% (23.5%)
Germany 14.5% (11.1%)
Argentina 11.5% (20.6%)
Holland 9.6% (5.5%)
Spain 9.3% (7.9%)
Italy 8.9% (10.3%)
England 7.2% (9.8%)
Portugal 5.4% (3.7%)
France 3.6% (4.1%)
Switzerland 1.6% (1.7%)
Sweden 1.2% (1.4%)
Australia 1.0% (1.2%)
Ukraine 0.7% (1.3%)
Mexico 0.7% (0.8%)
Ecuador 0.2% (0.8%)
Ghana 0.1% (1.0%)